Description: In Medicaid rate development, actuaries have not historically shared models that developed the margin (i.e., underwriting gain) assumption. This is unfortunate, given the margin assumption is one of the most critical components of the rate development in ensuring financial solvency of the Medicaid managed care organizations (MCOs). In this session, we will discuss the primary components of the this assumption and will share working models that help actuaries quantify these components—including the cost of capital and risk (or contingency) margin. We expect a lively discussion as we “open the black box” and discuss these actuarial assumptions in the public for the first time.

Description: This is a poster presentation about a study to evaluate various methods for projecting health benefit populations.

Description: Profile of an actuary in a non-traditional actuarial role: focusing on medical cost and analysis, both retrospective and prospective.

Description: According to the Actuarial Standards Board’s Actuarial Standard of Practice No. 49 (ASOP 49), actuarially sound Medicaid managed care capitation rates will include a provision for underwriting gain in order to provide compensation for the risks assumed by an MCO. However, there is no generally accepted method for quantifying underwriting gain in managed Medicaid capitation rates. This article discusses a new model developed to address this void and calculate underwriting gain. The model was developed by researching existing financial literature and performing a statistical analysis of industry data to build out a framework that can be leveraged to estimate underwriting gain.

Description: This panel discussion considers some of the approaches, techniques and problems in the development of corporate models and assumptions. The pros and cons of buying versus developing models was discussed and the use of deterministic versus stochastic models was addressed as well.

Description: This abstract describes a paper that investigates how to apply a stochastic mortality model in the presence of missing data, using 'multiple imputation'.

Description: Given the ubiquity of judgmental forecasting, it is important to understand the potential biases inherent in human judgment—the traps that can snare us—and to learn methods and best practices to avoid them. The aim of this article is to help readers with these goals.

Description: This paper presents the fundamentals of creating and using projections. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1950, Vol. 2, No. 4.

Description: Presented at May 2002 Spring Meeting. Our lecturer presents findings from a research project relating to the Cox, Ingersoll & Ross model of interest rates, including an effective way of pricing general interest rate derivatives and pricing bonds.

Description: Presented at Living to 100 Symposium, January 2011. This study adapts the idea of regular discount sequence in the bandit problem, and uses it to interpret life expectancy, as well as to develop a model for survival probabilities. Data came from multiple countries.